Stop waiting for the crash. The data says it's not coming.
Every headline cycle resurrects the crash question, but the year-to-date medians in Washtenaw (+2.4%) and Livingston (+3.8%) show prices still climbing in 2026. What changed is inventory and leverage, not direction.
No. 06 · Market Report
I have been asked about a crash in every market I have ever worked, including the one where prices actually did fall. So I take the question seriously, and then I open the spreadsheet. The September Realcomp numbers do not support the crash theory. They support something much less dramatic and much more useful: a market that rebalanced.
The trend is up, not down
For all the talk, the year-to-date median in Washtenaw County is $462,750, up 2.4 percent, and Livingston County's year-to-date median is $435,000, up 3.8 percent. A market in free fall does not produce year-to-date gains in both of its two biggest counties. What actually changed in 2026 is supply: Washtenaw inventory rose 32 percent and Livingston's rose 14 percent, which is exactly what gave buyers leverage they have not had in years.
Waiting has a cost, and it is measurable
The crash-waiters are not sitting still, they are paying. Every month on the sidelines means competing later against everyone else who waited too, in a market that the data says is still climbing. If prices hold anywhere near their year-to-date pace, the home that fits your budget today is a harder conversation next spring. Waiting for a collapse the numbers do not support is the most expensive strategy I know.
"The crash headlines sell clicks. The year-to-date medians sell homes, and they are still going up."
Nicole Elizabeth Yaeger
